The negotiations between the Americans and the Taliban are called “peace negotiations” by the Americans, while the Taliban call them “negotiations for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan.” But the content of the negotiations is not determined by their label, but by their intrinsic essence, which also determines the form. The following subjects are to be looked at in this regard:
- The intrinsic essence of the negotiations.
- The intrinsic content of the negotiations.
- Negotiations as a phenomenon.
- The form of the negotiations.
The intrinsic essence of the negotiations is determined by the intrinsic essence of the two negotiating sides and the contradiction between the two is the fundamental contradiction of the negotiations. Therefore, the intrinsic essence of the occupying forces, the puppet regime, and the Taliban should be identified based on which contradiction between them should be analyzed.
The intrinsic essence of the occupying imperialist powers is its being imperialist with all its qualities. The intrinsic essence of the puppet regime is its essence of being colonial/semi-feudal. The internal essence of the Taliban is its essence of being semi-feudal and semi-colonial.
So the contradiction that emanates from the intrinsic essence of the Taliban towards the imperialist occupiers and the puppet regime is the contradiction between the colonial current situation and the demand for semi-colonial independence, the pursuit of which is defective and is only based on the partial solution to the current principal contradiction and is unable to guide society towards the final solution of the fundamental contradiction.
In other words, the fundamental contradiction between the Taliban and the imperialist occupiers is not in conformity with the fundamental contradiction of society; thus, the fundamental contradiction between them is not a fundamental contradiction in society but is a non-fundamental contradiction. In the same way, the armed resistance of the Taliban is not a solution to this contradiction: kicking out the occupying forces through Talibanite armed resistance is a defective, partial, and inconsistent armed resistance and finally must come to a conclusion through compromise between the two.
Therefore, the content of compromise and collusion between the imperialist occupiers and the Taliban in the ongoing negotiations is emanating fundamentally from their intrinsic essence and the intrinsic essence of the contradiction between them, not from the negotiations between them as a phenomenon and the form of negotiations. The negotiations between whatever characteristic it might have and whatever form it might take, will make no fundamental difference to the collusive essence of these negotiations that are based on collusion and complicity.
Moreover, the contradiction between the reactionary colonial/semi-feudal kernel of the puppet regime and the reactionary semi-colonial/semi-feudal kernel of the Taliban is the contradiction between the current colonial situation and the Taliban’s quest for semi-colonial independence, since the contradiction between the two situation is not a substantial fundamental contradiction. The colonial situation and the semi-colonial situation are two different situations of imperialist domination which has a fundamental difference with the contradiction between true independence from imperialism and the colonial situation, which is a fundamental contradiction. Therefore, in the same manner that the war between the puppet regime and the Taliban is not based on the fundamental contradiction of society, the negotiations between them––whatever the dynamics––will not be based on the fundamental contradiction of society and is collusive and complicit in essence.
Therefore, the start of negotiations between the American imperialist occupiers and the Taliban is the start of the process of collusion and complicity between them and thus, sooner or later, will be followed by the collusion and complicity between the Taliban and the puppet regime. In fact, here too, there is no fundamental contradiction between the puppet regime and the Taliban. Therefore, the non-essential contradiction at both levels can be solved based on collusion and compromise between both sides, and the ongoing war between them be ended and a reactionary and imperialistic peace among them be established. However, this peace would not be based on the interests of the peoples of the country, it will essentially be a factor of the continuation of future imperialist and reactionary wars.
Based on a materialist and dialectical understanding it can be said that the process of collusion and complicity between the Americans and the Taliban will finally lead to the continuation of a diluted colonial and a strong intelligence presence in the country––and the continuing presence of the imperialist military and intelligence bases for this purpose––as well as the strong military, political, and economic dependence of the country on them.
On the other hand, the process of collusion between the puppet regime (The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan) and the Taliban (Islamic Emarat of Afghanistan) is also the process of fusion of “Republic” with “Emarat,” into something more like the theocratic republic in Iran, with a more politically pronounced role for the mullahs.
Depending on how this process is carried out, the principal contradiction and other secondary contradictions at the end of this process can already be appraised. But there is also a weak possibility that the entire process is unsuccessful, and the negotiations are terminated––in that case the current condition might be further prolonged.
It should also be noted that there are divergent views in relation to the war in Afghanistan among the upper military and diplomatic echelons of the American imperialists. Politicians have electoral considerations, there is also the concern of reducing financial costs of the war, and the military is looking at it from the military calculation of loss and victory––particularly they do not want to repeat the supposed mistake of a premature withdrawal from Iraq.
Nevertheless, it should also be kept in mind that the Americans are not willing to, directly or indirectly, handover all power to the Taliban; therefore, the Taliban would be sooner or later forced to completely capitulate to the American occupiers and accept their secondary share in the puppet regime, since the path chosen by the Taliban is irreversible, and they cannot go back to their previous situation.
Thus, the relations between American imperialist occupiers and the Taliban is transitioning from military confrontation to political collusion. It is possible that this condition of transition come to an end with the signing of an agreement between them. This situation could result in a situation of transition from military confrontation between the Taliban and the puppet regime to a situation of collusion-confrontation. However, currently it cannot be predicted how long this situation of transition will last and what kinds of difficulties it may be confronted with.
Hence, in our analysis of the changing complexity of the situation we should consider the Taliban a reactionary force of armed resistance that has fallen on the path of capitulation to the imperialist occupiers and the puppet regime, which has already received and will be receiving concessions, and not be considered a committed reactionary force of resistance.
The ongoing Taliban war is merely for the purposes of increasing their gains on the path of capitulation with the occupiers and their satraps, and not a committed reactionary war of resistance against them.